Known for his academic disposition and infamous temper, Ghani is said to be increasingly isolated at a moment when he is in desperate need of allies. The Taliban appear to be united, operating under an effective chain of command, despite perennial rumours of splits among the group's leadership.
"Strategically, it makes sense that they would test the Afghan security forces in the absence of US support to see how far they can get," said Jonathan Schroden, director of the military think tank CNA's Countering Threats and Challenges Program. Instead of a political settlement, the insurgents seem focused on positioning their troops for a military takeover. The international community blames the Taliban for stalling landmark peace talks with the Afghan government in Doha. The group has executed a successful string of offensives across Afghanistan, capturing fully or partially about 100 out of more than 400 districts at a dizzying rate since early May.#photo2 Never has the jihadist movement appeared so strong since being toppled by US forces two decades ago. "Next year, we could potentially see that the Afghan Taliban might focus on provincial capitals and major urban centres." "Essentially, this year the war will be the war over districts and highways," said Tamim Asey, the executive chair of the Kabul-based Institute of War and Peace Studies. The Afghan military's ability to weather the remaining months of the summer fighting season will likely be crucial to their long-term staying power.Ĭrucially, the US withdrawal means Afghan forces have lost vital American air support. "Many of the districts that have fallen were low-hanging fruit - remotely positioned and difficult to resupply or reinforce, with little strategic military value," said Andrew Watkins, a senior analyst on Afghanistan for the International Crisis Group. Thinly stretched with supply lines strained, the Afghan security forces have come under immense pressure in the final stages of the US military withdrawal.Īfghan troops are facing blistering attacks from the Taliban, including onslaughts on positions in the militants' southern strongholds and a lightning offensive in the north.#photo1īut government forces continue to maintain control over the country's cities, with most territorial losses in the sparsely populated rural areas.
Here is a rundown of what these powers, from the government in Kabul and local militias to regional nations, seek to gain or lose in Afghanistan as fighting intensifies for control of the war-weary country: With US and international troops all but gone from Afghanistan and the Taliban making rapid gains, a number of players are positioning themselves for the next phase of the conflict.
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